Legislatives in France: Macron far from absolute majority, breakthrough of Nupes and the National Rally

The bottom line

  • A little more than 48 million French are called to the polls for the second round of legislative elections.
  • Recent polls suggest that the centrist coalition Together!should prevail, but without the certainty of obtaining the absolute majority of 289 deputies (out of 577).

Also read: How to govern without a majority? The issue of the French legislature

  • In the first round, the outgoing majority arrived at elbow-to-elbow around 26% of the vote with the left-wing Nupes alliance of the tribune Jean-Luc Mélenchon. they Marine Le Pen National Rally (RN) hopes to form a group in the National Assembly.

Also read: Michel Winock: “We do not change the French political regime smoothly”

Also read: Emmanuel Macron, a warlord in the election campaign

19:19 – The first results: no absolute majority behind Emmanuel Macron

French President Emmanuel Macron would lose his absolute majority in the National Assembly, according to initial projections from two polling institutes. It would be far from the bar of 289 seats out of 577.

The left-wing Nupes coalition would get between 163 and 203 seats, according to a first estimate by the Harris Institute. Together !, the group behind Emmanuel Macron would get 208 to 248 seats, while the Republicans would win 30 to 50 seats. The National Assembly would get 67 to 90 seats.

The Ipsos Institute estimates Nupes seats at 156, 218 for Ensemble !, 89 for the National Rally and 78 for Republicans.

18:53 – It’s time to dump her and move on to several cities in French-speaking Switzerland

Candidates Magali Mangin (New People’s Ecological and Social Union, Nupes) and Marc Ferracci (Together!) Were voted in the 6th constituency of the French abroad. The presidential majority came out on top in this election with 36% of the vote while the candidate of the coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon won 20% of the vote.

# legislatives2022 – It’s 6:00 pm – The polls are closed – Place for counting – Thank you to all the tellers who are mobilizing in all the polling stations. pic.twitter.com/0rFOsm6D1S

– Patrick Lachaussee (@PLachaussee) June 19, 2022

6:13 p.m. 53.5% to 54% abstention, up from the 1st round

Abstention is expected to reach between 53.5% and 54% on Sunday in the second round of the legislative elections, its second highest level for this election, up more than one point from the first round (52.49%), according to estimates by five polling institutes.

Detail: Ipsos / Sopra Steria for FranceTV / RadioFrance / France24 / RFI / LCP, Ifop for TF1 / LCI and Elabe for BFMTV / LEXPRESS / RMC rate the final abstention at 54%, while OpinionWay for CNews and Europe1 measure at 53 .5% and Harris interactive for M6 and RTL at 53.9%, in all cases below the record for a second round recorded in 2017 (57.36%)

5:20 pm – Final abstention rate down?

According to an Elabe / BFMTV projection, the final abstention rate in the second round could be 54%, three points less than in 2017 (57%). In other words, participation would be better this year. To be checked in the evening.

5:01 pm – Turnout decreased at 5:00 p.m.

Turnout in the second round of the legislative elections reached 38.11% on Sunday at 5pm in the metropolis, according to the Ministry of the Interior, a figure down 1.31% from the first round a week ago, when it was was 39.42%.

On the other hand, it is up from the second round of the 2017 legislative elections, when it reached 35.33% at the same time.

2:44 p.m. Emmanuel Macron voted for Le Touquet

The head of state, accompanied by his wife Brigitte Macron, voted at Le Touquet around 1pm in his usual polling station. Emmanuel Macron then went to greet supporters and the curious who were waiting for him outside, in the rain.

12:42 – Youngest elected MP in Polynesia

He is the youngest elected member of the National Assembly for the History of the Fifth Republic. At the age of 21, pro-independence activist Tematai Legayic was elected in the 1st constituency of French Polynesia, where voting took place on Saturday. He defeated former Tourism Minister Nicole Bouteau.

The Tavani party, winner of this election, is backed by the Nupes. He gets 50.88% of the votes cast, compared to 49.12% for Nicole Bouteau, according to the Interior Ministry. An unexpected victory for the young candidate, who was more than 20 points behind his opponent in the first round.

12:02 pm – Rising turnout

Turnout in the second round of the French legislative elections reached 18.99% on Sunday at 12 noon, according to the Ministry of the Interior, a very slight increase (0.56%) compared to the first round a week ago when it was was 18.43%.

It is also up from the second round of the 2017 legislature where it reached 17.75% at noon. On the other hand, it is down from the second round of the presidential election on April 24 (26.41%).

# Elections2022 l Turnout at 12 noon for the 2nd round of elections # legislative2022 in metropolitan France: 18.99%. pic.twitter.com/Uh2oC6F6DZ

8am – Voting begins in the metropolis

Polling stations open at 8 a.m. and close at 6 p.m. (8 p.m. in major cities). The first estimates are expected at 8 p.m.

Mobilization is a key issue in this hot weekend. More than one in two voters (52.5%) abstained in the first round. And in 2017 the French had deserted the polls even more in the second round than in the first, with 57.4% abstaining, a record since 1958.

4am – Secretary of State Justin Benin beaten in Guadeloupe

One day before the metropolis, overseas voters opened the ball by going to the polls on Saturday, as well as some French people from abroad, especially in North America.

In Guadeloupe, the Secretary of State for the Sea, Justine Benin, who was running for office, was defeated in the 2nd constituency, with 41.35% of the vote behind Christian Baptiste (DVG) elected with 58.65 % of votes, announced the prefecture of Guadeloupe.

She was running for government in this election. The executive had reminded in advance of the vote that in case of failure of the legislature, the candidate minister should leave the government in accordance with an unwritten rule but already applied in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron.

Some of our articles at the end of the first round…

And also: The far right, the discreet winner of the first round of the French legislature

Our analysis: The French are shunning the first round of the legislative elections and that is a bad sign

Also read: In France, the presidential coalition and the left-wing alliance side by side

Also read: Emmanuel Macron in the face of the need for opposition in a democracy

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